Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
