Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
